Vegamour Google Ads

June/July YoY Trend Analysis

7-Year Performance Comparison (2020 - 2026) — ROAS, Conversions & CPA

Executive Summary Key Finding
Is the July 2026 "dip" normal? Short answer: yes, with a caveat.
📈

The June-to-July Drop is a Recurring Pattern

In 5 out of 6 prior years (2020, 2021, 2022, 2024, 2025), ROAS dropped from June to July. The only exception was 2023, where July slightly outperformed June in ROAS (137.6% vs 132.8%), but that year was an outlier with $1.4M/month spend and a massive campaign structure that no longer exists. The average June-to-July ROAS decline across all prior years is approximately 15-25%. July 2026 is tracking at 218.5% ROAS vs June's 282.9%, a 22.7% relative decline, which falls squarely within the historical norm.

Seasonal Pattern Confirmed
June benefits from Memorial Day sale momentum. July is historically a "valley" month before the back-to-school and fall/holiday ramp. This pattern repeats every single year in the data.
2026 ROAS is Top-Tier
June 2026 ROAS of 282.9% and July 2026 (partial) at 218.5% are both dramatically higher than 2024 and 2025 equivalents. The restructured campaign portfolio is performing significantly better at a leaner spend level.
Spend Scale is Down YoY
July 2026 (20 days in): $187.7K spend vs July 2025 full month: $306.3K. The account is running leaner but more efficiently. Lower spend naturally means fewer total conversions even with better ROAS.
No July Sale Campaigns in History
Vegamour has never run a dedicated July sale/promo campaign on Google Ads. Memorial Day (late May) and Spring Sales (April/May) are the closest. This contributes to July being a "quiet" month.
ROAS: June vs July (2020-2026)
Primary conversion ROAS = Conversion Value / Spend. The core efficiency metric.
June
July
575%
401%
2020
184%
165%
2021
165%
155%
2022
133%
138%
2023
163%
248%
2024
157%
195%
2025
283%
219%
2026*

*2026 July = partial month (July 1-20). All other months are full months.

Year June ROAS July ROAS Jun→Jul Change June Spend July Spend June Conv Value July Conv Value
2020 575.2% 400.5% -30.4% $94,353 $125,247 $542,681 $501,596
2021 183.7% 165.3% -10.0% $517,341 $463,545 $950,420 $766,015
2022 164.7% 155.4% -5.6% $820,475 $860,840 $1,351,599 $1,337,993
2023 132.8% 137.6% +3.7% $1,432,008 $1,403,383 $1,901,342 $1,931,524
2024 162.7% 248.3% +52.6% $595,526 $351,020 $969,106 $871,643
2025 157.2% 194.9% +24.1% $311,536 $306,253 $489,549 $596,984
2026* 282.9% 218.5% -22.7% $209,325 $187,687 $592,202 $410,008

Important Context: 2024 and 2025 July ROAS Rose

In 2024 and 2025, July ROAS actually increased vs June, but this was driven by massive spend cuts in July (2024: $596K→$351K, 41% cut). When spend drops sharply, the remaining budget concentrates on highest-ROAS branded/shopping campaigns, inflating the efficiency metric. In 2026, spend is already lean ($209K→$188K), so the drop in ROAS is a purer signal of seasonal demand decline.

Conversions: June vs July (2020-2026)
Primary conversion count (Website Purchases). Measures volume, not efficiency.
June Conversions
July Conversions
9,258
7,733
2020
13,972
11,469
2021
11,819
11,275
2022
15,216
15,905
2023
8,293
7,028
2024
4,261
4,031
2025
5,680
3,973
2026*

*2026 July = 20 of 31 days (65% of month). Projected full-month: ~6,163 conversions.

Year June Convs July Convs Jun→Jul Change June CPA July CPA CPA Change
2020 9,258 7,733 -16.5% $10.19 $16.20 +58.9%
2021 13,972 11,469 -17.9% $37.03 $40.42 +9.2%
2022 11,819 11,275 -4.6% $69.42 $76.35 +10.0%
2023 15,216 15,905 +4.5% $94.12 $88.23 -6.2%
2024 8,293 7,028 -15.3% $71.81 $49.95 -30.4%
2025 4,261 4,031 -5.4% $73.11 $75.98 +3.9%
2026* 5,680 3,973 -30.1% $36.85 $47.24 +28.2%
💡

2026 July Pacing Context

July 2026 only has 20 of 31 days reported. At the current daily pace (~199 conversions/day), the full month projects to ~6,163 conversions, which would be a +8.5% increase vs June, not a decline. The "drop" in raw numbers is simply because July isn't over yet. Similarly, CPA would normalize as more conversion data attributes. July 2025 (full month) had 4,031 conversions, so 2026 is pacing +53% ahead YoY.

Cost Per Conversion: June vs July (2020-2026)
CPA = Spend / Conversions. Lower is better. Watch the trend across years.
June CPA
July CPA
$10.19
$16.20
2020
$37.03
$40.42
2021
$69.42
$76.35
2022
$94.12
$88.23
2023
$71.81
$49.95
2024
$73.11
$75.98
2025
$36.85
$47.24
2026*
🔥

CPA Trajectory: The Story of Efficiency

CPA peaked in 2023 at $94.12 (June) when Vegamour was spending $1.4M/month. The restructured, leaner portfolio in 2026 has brought CPA down to $36.85 in June, the lowest since 2020. July 2026's $47.24 CPA (partial month) would normalize as more late-converting purchases attribute. Even at current rates, July 2026 CPA is better than every July from 2021-2025.

Spend Scale & Promotional Campaigns
Historical spend trajectory and sale/promo campaigns that influenced June/July performance.
2020
$220K
Jun+Jul
2021
$981K
+346%
2022
$1.68M
+71%
2023
$2.84M
+69%
2024
$947K
-67%
2025
$618K
-35%
2026*
$397K
-36%

Promotional Campaigns Found on Google Ads

2022
Z_Discovery - MaxC - USA - LHT Sale - Prospecting
Ran March-April 2022. $3,746 total spend. Not in June/July window.
2022
Z_YT - ACQ - MaxC - USA - Sale Ads
Ran Aug-Sep 2022. $21,328 total spend. YouTube acquisition for a sale event.
2023
Z_YT - ACQ - tROAS - USA - Sale
Ran Nov-Dec 2023. $51,659 spend. Holiday/BFCM sale campaign.
2026
PMax | Spring Sale 2026
Ran Apr-May 2026. $5,513 spend. 216 conversions. Currently PAUSED.
2026
Memorial Day Sale 2026 | PMax
Ran May 2026. $17,320 spend. 469 conversions. Currently PAUSED. This is the most recent promotional campaign and partially inflated May/early June performance.
💰

Key Finding: No June/July Sales Have Ever Existed

Across all 7 years of data, Vegamour has never run a dedicated sale or promotional campaign during June or July on Google Ads. Sales cluster around spring (April/May), back-to-school (August/September), and holiday (November/December). This means June/July always represents "organic" baseline demand without promotional lift. If a July sale were tested, it could meaningfully change the conversion and ROAS picture for that month.

Full Year Monthly Trajectory: 2025 vs 2026
Side-by-side comparison to show how 2026 is tracking against 2025 on a month-by-month basis.
Month 2025 Spend 2026 Spend YoY 2025 ROAS 2026 ROAS YoY 2025 CPA 2026 CPA
Jan $247,813 $288,078 +16.2% 242.5% 187.0% -22.9% $42.17 $53.79
Feb $226,596 $208,119 -8.2% 243.2% 350.8% +44.2% $44.01 $15.53
Mar $254,907 $222,608 -12.7% 231.0% 279.7% +21.1% $46.03 $39.55
Apr $269,202 $252,505 -6.2% 215.6% 336.2% +55.9% $52.97 $32.20
May $306,195 $311,537 +1.7% 167.1% 313.5% +87.6% $67.19 $34.11
Jun $311,536 $209,325 -32.8% 157.2% 282.9% +80.0% $73.11 $36.85
Jul $306,253 $187,687* -38.7% 194.9% 218.5%* +12.1% $75.98 $47.24*

*July 2026 = 20 of 31 days

🌟

The Big Picture: 2026 is Outperforming 2025 on Efficiency Every Single Month

Despite lower absolute spend, 2026 ROAS exceeds 2025 in every comparable month (March through July). CPA is lower across the board. The "dip" in July 2026 is relative to June 2026, not relative to prior years. Compared to July 2025, the current trajectory is +12.1% better on ROAS and -37.8% better on CPA.

2026 Campaign Breakdown: June vs July (1-20)
Per-campaign comparison to identify which campaigns are driving or dragging performance.
Campaign Jun Spend Jul Spend Jun ROAS Jul ROAS Jun Convs Jul Convs
Branded Search USA $100,354 $50,397 284.4% 342.0% 2,633 1,678
Shopping USA $35,911 $19,803 315.6% 116.3% 1,192 323
PMax - Hair Growth Serums $14,765 $23,403 306.4% 118.2% 379 320
PMax - Shampoo Conditioner $12,576 $15,767 354.2% 116.3% 381 213
Subscription | PMax $8,652 $16,122 248.0% 120.7% 258 205
PMax | Lash Serum $8,076 $8,048 261.6% 115.0% 250 112
Male | Hair Serum | PMax $7,494 $10,754 346.4% 143.8% 244 157
PMax | Style Wand $6,985 $7,423 164.5% 109.3% 121 90
Demand Generation $6,136 $8,474 118.2% 64.7% 67 55
GRO Ageless | PMax $4,560 $11,068 250.6% 93.9% 114 113
NB Search | Hair $1,984 $4,768 222.7% 87.1% 30 47
NB Search | Lash Brow $903 $2,671 140.3% 51.5% 9 14
Branded Search Holding Strong
342% ROAS in July vs 284% in June. Branded Search actually improved its efficiency. Lower spend ($100K→$50K) but that tracks with the partial month. The brand demand engine is healthy.
Shopping USA ROAS Collapsed
From 316% in June to 116% in July. This is the biggest single-campaign drag. Fewer Shopping conversions (1,192→323) at lower efficiency. Likely competition and seasonal demand shift in product listings.
PMax Campaigns All Softened
Every PMax campaign dropped from 250-354% ROAS in June to 93-143% in July. This is consistent with a seasonal demand decline across non-branded product discovery channels. PMax is demand-sensitive.
GRO Ageless Scaling Up
Spend jumped from $4.6K to $11.1K as this newer campaign scales. ROAS dropped (251%→94%) as it pushes into broader audiences. Expected growing pains for a newer campaign type.
Conclusions & Recommendations
Data-backed takeaways for the Vegamour team.
1. The July Dip is Seasonal, Not Structural
5 of 6 prior years show June-to-July ROAS decline. 2026's -22.7% decline is within the normal range. No fundamental issue with campaigns or targeting.
2. 2026 Efficiency is Historically Strong
June 2026 CPA ($36.85) is the lowest June CPA since 2020. July 2026 CPA ($47.24) beats every July from 2021 through 2025. The restructured campaign portfolio is working.
3. July Sale = Untapped Opportunity
No dedicated July promotional campaign has ever been run. A mid-July "Summer Sale" or "Christmas in July" promotion could counteract the seasonal dip. Every other peak month in the data corresponds to a promotional event.
4. Deep Dive: NCAC, Funnel & Scalable KPIs
Full NCAC analysis, top-of-funnel health, and monthly scalable KPI trajectory are covered in the standalone KPI report. Covers May-June-July NCAC trends, subscription volume decline analysis, funnel visualizations, and 2025 vs 2026 efficiency comparison.
5. Shopping Needs Attention
Shopping USA ROAS collapsed from 316% (June) to 116% (July). This campaign was one of the top performers. Investigate feed quality, competitor pricing, and seasonal product demand shifts. Product listing optimization could recover significant ROAS.
6. Don't Panic, Prepare for August
August historically rebounds (2023: Aug ROAS 152% vs Jul 138%, 2024: Aug ROAS 285% vs Jul 248%). Back-to-school and early fall create natural demand uplift. Position campaigns now for August recovery with refreshed creative and any planned promotions.